с 01.01.2025 по 01.01.2024
Алматы, Казахстан
Алматы, Казахстан
Калифорния, США
Алматы, Казахстан
JEL O14 Industrialization • Manufacturing and Service Industries • Choice of Technology
JEL O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence
JEL C10 General
В условиях нестабильной внешнеэкономической конъюнктуры, геополитических вызовов и продолжающихся структурных преобразований в экономике Казахстана всесторонний анализ факторов, определяющих промышленный рост и устойчивость производственного сектора, имеет особое значение. Целью исследования является выявление характера, направленности и силы взаимосвязей между промышленным производством и ключевыми макроэкономическими детерминантами, что позволяет нам определить приоритетные направления промышленной политики. Эмпирическая база исследования основана на официальных статистических данных за 2000-2024 годы, что обеспечивает репрезентативность и достоверность выводов. Методологический подход основан на корреляционном и трендовом анализе, а также SWOT- и PEST-диагностике, что позволило охватить как количественные, так и качественные аспекты влияния инвестиционной, экспортной, трудовой и институциональной составляющих на динамику промышленности. Результаты исследования показали, что наибольшее положительное влияние на промышленное производство оказывают государственные субсидии (коэффициент корреляции 0,7592), уровень заработной платы (0,7126), валовой выпуск товаров и услуг (0,6587) и валовое накопление (0,6552). Чистый экспорт имеет умеренную положительную корреляцию (0,6463), в то время как инвестиции в основной капитал демонстрируют слабую текущую корреляцию (0,092), что указывает на вероятный отложенный эффект. SWOT-анализ выявил сильные стороны отрасли, включая богатую ресурсную базу и значительную государственную поддержку, а также слабые стороны, связанные с зависимостью от ресурсов и технологическим отставанием. PEST-анализ подтвердил высокую чувствительность промышленного сектора к нестабильности цен и валютных курсов. Сделан вывод о необходимости комплексного применения инвестиционных, фискальных и институциональных инструментов, направленных на стимулирование устойчивой индустриализации, ускорение технологического обновления и укрепление международной конкурентоспособности казахстанской промышленности.
индустриализация, макроэкономика, производительность, инвестиции, экспорт, субсидии, модернизация, конкурентоспособность, диверсификация, устойчивость
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