Moscow, Russian Federation
Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
JEL F33 International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
JEL F65 Finance
This article conducts a selective assessment of the impact of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB) on the economic and social development of developing countries. Based on empirical data and an analysis of the banks’ projects, the authors test the hypothesis that, despite their stated goals of advancing the UN Sustainable Development Goals, banks’ activities primarily reproduce structural dependencies of the economies of recipient countries. Using the “real development” criterion (increased autonomy, reduced dependence, and the creation of high-tech industries), the article demonstrates the minimal contribution of the analyzed projects to structural change. The implementation of infrastructure projects increases the size of debt without the beneficial diversification of export structures or the localization of technology. The analysis identified a number of interrelated factors explaining the geopolitical underpinnings of the new development banks’ interests and compared their activities with the policies of traditional multilateral financial institutions. The theoretical significance of this study lies in the development and testing of a system of “real development” criteria that goes beyond traditional quantitative metrics such as financing volumes or nominal GDP growth. The developed methodology, which integrates economic, social, technological, and financial indicators, enables a more nuanced assessment of the effectiveness of lending by multilateral financial institutions. Recommendations are offered for improving the effectiveness of the AIIB and the NDB in financing projects in developing countries, as well as areas for further research on this issue. It is concluded that real shifts in the balance of power in the global economy depend on the ability of new development banks to balance their geopolitical ambitions with the real needs of developing countries.
AIIB, NDB, sustainable development, developing countries, structural dependence, geopolitical economics
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