Podolsk, Moscow, Russian Federation
Russian State University of Tourism and Service
Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
JEL F37 International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
JEL G15 International Financial Markets
The article examines the results of a theoretical, methodological and empirical study of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of certain demographic syndromes of the post-industrial world and their impact on labor potential management in individual countries through the prism of human capital. In particular, the article examines the state and prospects of population aging and the resulting decline in the share of the workforce and their impact on macroeconomic dynamics and financial stability in the post-industrial world, characterized by the highest rates of population aging in the world. This article also contributes to understanding how population aging can affect aggregate factor productivity through individual elements of human capital. While other individual studies have focused on the general downward trend in the share of labor in GDP, the assessment of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of such a trend remains poorly understood. To this end, based on a quantitative model of the general equilibrium of the life cycle, the article provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of a decrease in the share of labor on macroeconomic variables and reforms of the social security system. In particular, the study is based on the model of intersecting generations, the parameters of which are adapted to individual countries of the post-industrial world, while modeling the impact of various institutions of human capital, such as health insurance and pension provision, etc. Empirical evidence shows that the decline in the labor share can be offset by a combination of appropriate macroeconomic management and institutional reforms, which can ultimately contribute to restoring macro-financial stability in countries characterized by an aging population and high levels of public debt.
cumulative factor productivity, demographic syndrome, labor potential, human capital, macroeconomic management, institutional reforms, economic dynamics
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